AUD/USD: 0.7145EUR/USD: 1.0880The US dollar is has traded mostly sideways today, with many players sitting on the sidelines ahead of the upcoming US employment data, the outcome of which will provide a clearer view as to whether we are likely to see a December rate hike or not. The main focus has been on Sterling, which headed sharply lower following the rather dovish outcome from the Quarterly Inflation Report and on the follow up comments from BOE Governor Carney. Asia will see a bit of data from Japan, where the BOJ Governor Kuroda will also be speaking. In Australia, the RBA will release its Monetary Policy statement. Later on Europe will get the German Industrial Production, while from the UK, the Trade Balance and Manufacturing Production will be in focus. Standing aside while waiting for the NFP seems to be the plan today. Have a good w/e.
AUDUSD has been relatively uninteresting as it consolidates ahead of the US jobs data, sticking to a range of 0.7125/70.
The local focus today will be on the RBA Monetary Policy Statement although given last week’s RBA Statement and Governor Stevens’s comments yesterday, this should contain few surprises. The AIG Performance of Construction Index is also due. All up thigh, look for a similar session today ahead of the US open, with the technical outlook remaining pretty much unchanged.
If the NFP fails to impress (sub 180K), we will see a short squeeze to the topside where, above resistance in the 0.7170/80 area, 0.7200 would see sellers, but a break of which would then see progress towards Wednesday’s session high of 0.7223. Back above here would then head towards 0.7260/70 (0.7260: 61.8% of 0.7381/0.7066) and possibly towards 0.7295/0.7300 (23 Oct high: 0.7296). Beyond there, 0.7306 is 76.4% of 0.7381/0.7066.
To the downside, the session low of 0.7125 will see buyers ahead of Wednesday’s spike low at 0.7110. If/when the Aud heads back below 0.7100, then 0.7080 (minor) and 0.7065 (29 Oct low) would be supportive, but below which, we should look for further support to be tested at 0.7040 (76.4% of 0.6936/0.7381), at 0.7012 (76.4% of 0.6900/0.7381) and then at 0.7000. Beyond that, the rising trend support now sits at 0.6995, a break of which will return to 0.6936 (29 Sept low) and to 0.6900 (4 Sept low).
Economic data highlights will include:
Monetary Policy Statement, AIG Performance of Construction Index.
Jim LanglandsFX Charts
