AUD/USD: 0.7135EUR/USD: 1.1000Some soft data kept the dollar and equities under pressure on Friday although the dollar did regain some of those losses by the end of the session. Stocks finished on their lows. The coming week is going to be another busy one, with plenty going on, culminating in the US unemployment and Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday. Before then, central bank activity will see Interest Rate Decisions from the RBA and the BOE, while the global PMIs are also due. The Manufacturing PMIs lead things off today, with the immediate focus being on the Chinese Caixin number, due for release during the Asian session. This follows on from the official manufacturing figure released over the weekend which showed a figure of slightly beneath expectations of 49.8 (exp 50.00). The figures from Australia and Japan are also due today. Later in the day the EU PMIs will be released ahead of the US Mfg ISM and Construction Spending.
AUDUSD edged higher from the 0.7066 lows on Friday, reaching 0.7147, seen following the release of the soft US data, but those gains dissipated a little into the close, with the Aud finishing the week at 0.7130.
The Aud is likely to have a busy session today, with the release of the global Manufacturing PMIs, headed off by Australia but with the main focus in Asia being on the Chinese Caixin figures. The official manufacturing figure was released over the weekend and came in slightly beneath expectations of 49.8 (exp 50.00). Being under 50.00, might put the Aud under added pressure on Monday.
Tuesday could be equally busy, especially if the RBA cut rates while everyone is busy watching a horse race! The pressure seems to be growing for another cut, although at this stage it appears unlikely that it is going to be in November.
The charts are currently a little mixed and while the dailies still point lower, the shorter term charts look a little more positive, and if the 0.7145/50 area is overcome, then look for further gains towards the 28 Oct high at 0.7158, beyond which could see a run up to 0.7180 and on to 0.7200/05. I would doubt that we head above here in the short term, especially given the soft weekend Chinese manufacturing data but if wrong, further advances could take the Aud back towards the descending trend resistance, currently seen at 0.7300.
Back to the downside, bids will arrive today at 0.7100, 0.7080 and at 0.7065. Below this looks unlikely and a day of consolidation ahead of the RBA tomorrow would not surprise. If wrong, look for further support to be seen at .7040 (76.4% of 0.6936/0.7381) and then at 0.7012 (76.4% of 0.6900/0.7381) and 0.7000. Further out, rising trend support sits at 0.6990, a break of which will return to 0.6936 (29 Sept low) and 0.6900 (4 Sept low).
Economic data highlights will include:
M: China Official Manufacturing, Non -Mfg PMIs, Caixin China Manufacturing PMI AIG Performance of Mfg Index, Building Permits, TD Inflation
T: RBA Interest Rate Decision, Statement
W: AIG Performance of Services Index, Retail Sales, Trade Balance, Caixin Services PMI
T:
F:
Jim LanglandsFX Charts
