The US$ made further mild gains on Friday, aided by some comments from the Fed's Fischer, who sounded more upbeat than might have been expected given the recent moves in global markets, by suggesting that a September rate hike in the US is still an even bet. The coming week will be another busy one with important data due on most days, but with the focus being on the ECB rate decision and Mario Draghi's press conference (Thur) and then on the US Jobs/NFP (Fri). Today kicks off with the German Retail Sales, EU CPI (provisional), and Chicago Purchasing Managers Index. Australia will see the release of the TD Inflation figure, ANZ Business Confidence, New Home Sales and Private Sector Credit. It is a UK Bank Holiday
AUDUSD:Friday’s Asian squeeze to 0.7205 (daily Tenkan: 0.7210) evaporated, despite generally firmer commodity prices, with selling pressure pushing the Aud back to a low of 0.7120 before a late squeeze, to finish the week at the pivot point of the last couple of days, at 0.7170. With the charts looking rather mixed, further choppy trade could be in store although there is plenty to move it around in the days ahead.
Starting today, we get the TD Inflation, ANZ Business Confidence, New Home Sales and the Building Permits. Tomorrow sees the RBA Interest Rate Decision, where no change is expected although the statement is likely to have a leaning bias, and then later in the week we get the GDP (Wed), Retail Sales (Thur). From China, the Mfg/Non Mfg PMIs are due tomorrow, which will be closely followed given the reaction to last week’s flash numbers, with the Services PMI up on Thursday.
Once again, the downside will find buyers at 0.7150, 0.0.7120 and at 0.7100, below which would open the path to 0.7070 and then to the trend low at 0.7037. Below this would see a run to 0.7000 and lower, where the next support would arrive at 0.6952 (April 2009 low) but seems unlikely to be seen yet.
Rallies will see sellers at Friday’s high of 0.7205 (minor) ahead of 0.7250, which has recently acted as a bit of a pivot. A break of this would encounter further offers at 0.7300/10 but currently looks unlikely.
Today looks likely to be choppy, but probably rather directionless as we await the RBA, tomorrow, and the GDP and the Retail Sales later in the week.
Economic data highlights will include:
M: TD Inflation, ANZ Business Confidence, New Home Sales, Private Sector Credit
T: Building Permits, China Mfg/Non Mfg PMI, Caixin Mfg PMI, RBA Interest Rate Decision, Statement
W: GDP
T: AIG Services PMI, Retail Sales, Caixin China Services PMI.
Jim LanglandsFX Charts
