AUD/USD: 0.7375EUR/USD: 1.0945It has been a busy session, with more of the same to come in the day ahead. Upbeat US data and some hawkish comments from Janet Yellen have underpinned the dollar, and this could continue given that today she will testify to Congress. Elsewhere the Euro remains precariously balanced while waiting for the vote in the Greek parliament on whether to accept the strict bail condition. The vote is due at any time now, and while it is expected to be passed, a negative outcome could send the Euro into a downwards spiral. There is plenty of other activity due today, headlined by the ECB Interest Rate Decision/ Press Conference/Statement but also to include the EU Trade Balance, CPI, US Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Mfg Survey. Japan gets the gets the weekly investment flow, while NZ leads off with the Business PMI, CPI, while Australia gets the NAB Business Conditions/Confidence data.
The Aud found a bid tone after yesterday’s upbeat China GDP, but after reaching a 0.7488 high, it has been pretty much downhill all the way, not helped by the upbeat US data and Yellen’s hawkish comments, but also put under pressure by the rate cut by the Bank of Canada. The BOC also forecast a recession with their Q2 outlook lowered to -0.5% from +1.8%, blaming weakness in US, China, energy prices. Sounds familiar….
The Aud has managed a minor bounce off the 0.7353 low, and with the hourly charts now rather oversold, we look likely to hang about here for much of the session while allowing them to unwind. Further out though, things do not look healthy for the Aud, and a break of 0.7350 would then target 0.7300 and the Fibo extension support at 0.7288 (100% of 0.8162/0.7598) from 0.7848(Blue Fibo structure on chart). Below this, there is then little to hold the Aud up until we reach 0.7200, which could appear on the horizon very quickly, so selling rallies, still appears to be the plan. Note also that the Aud has today put in a bearish outside daily candle, which only adds to the bearishness.
Today will see the NAB Business Conditions/Confidence and the Consumer Inflation Expectation, which could produce a minor rally but I would be surprised now to see the Aud back above 0.7400. If wrong, further rallies will take the Aud towards the 100/200 HMAs at 0.7435/45. I don’t really see it happening, and if Janet Yellen backs up her hawkish comments at today’s Testimony to Congress, the Aud could again come under heavy pressure.
Economic data highlights will include:
Consumer Inflation Expectation, NAB Business Conditions/Confidence (qq).
Jim LanglandsFX Charts www.fxchartsdaily.com
