AUD/USD: 0.7450EUR/USD: 1.1000It has been a choppy ride in the currency and equity markets today, while waiting for some resolution over the Greece debacle. It now looks as though it will be the weekend before we see any sort of plan, with Greece to supposedly submit new proposals on Friday ahead of the EU Fin Min meet Sat and a final decision on Sunday, meaning yet another opening gap on Monday. Elsewhere, commodities took a hit, not helped by nervousness over China, which will keep the commodity bloc currencies under pressure in the session ahead. With regards to economic data, the FOMC Minutes will be the key focus today although Cable could go for a ride on the release of the UK Budget. Otherwise the calendar is fairly empty, so all eyes will remain on Greece/China.
The Aud remains under heavy pressure, but above the 0.7397 session (6 year) low, currently sitting at 0.7445.
With the daily indicators picking up downside momentum, the Aud appears to be under ongoing strain in the sessions ahead, not helped by the price of Iron Ore, now back below 50.00, and Copper which is also trading at a 6 year low (and looking rather ominous in the charts). Gold and Silver (also looking rather ominous in the longer term charts) took a decent hit today as well, which will do little to underpin the Aud. Commodities aside, keep a close eye on China again today, where the equity markets are looking very ugly.
There is very little support below today’s low ahead of 0.7300 and 0.7285 (100% extension of 0.8162/0.7597 from 0.7848), below which there is another black hole ahead of the very strong support at around 0.7200, where two important Fibo levels are lining up (0.7210: 61.8% of 0.4773/1.1082 and 0.7180:76.4% of 0.6006/1.1082).
Further out, as I have said many times, I suspect that eventually 0.7000 will eventually appear on the horizon and, in the longer term, so will 0.6000 http://www.fxchartsdaily.com/audusd-aud-heading-0-6000-check-monthly-chart/). If correct, this is going to be some way off (2016/17?), so don’t get too excited yet!
On the topside, 0.7500 will see sellers ahead of the descending trend resistance at 0.7515 and the 100/200 HMAs at 0.7535/0.7615, although the latter of these looks well over the horizon.
Short term bullish divergence does suggest a squeeze to slightly higher levels, but selling into strength seems to be the plan.
Economic data highlights will include:
WBC Consumer Confidence.
Jim LanglandsFX Charts www.fxchartsdaily.com
