AUD/USD: 0.7645EUR/USD: 1.1050The picture in Greece remains very confused, keeping the Euro under pressure while at the same time the dollar has been underpinned by some stronger US data, in particular from the ADP Jobs figure, which comes ahead of today’s US employment and NFP release. Other data will be marginalised, but Australia does get the May Trade Balance figure, Japan will release the foreign bond/stock investment details and the EU PPI will be released. Asia will be pretty much on hold, waiting for more Greek headlines, and then it will be the NFP that takes control. Liquidity will become thin late in the session as the US prepares for the July 4 holiday.
Having reached a high of 0.7738 in Asia, the Aud has come under pressure through Europe and the US, on the back of the stronger US data and weaker commodity prices and currently sits just above the session low of 0.7638.
More choppy action within the 0.7600/0.7700 range looks likely for the coming session while we await the NFP outcome, although the domestic trade data (exp -2.2 bio) is due and will provide a few waves.
Both the 4 hour and the daily charts appear to be pointing a bit lower, and it looks to me as though the choppy consolidation of recent week’s may be approaching maturity for a stronger test of 0.7600, below which would see a run towards Monday’s spike low of 0.7586 and possibly towards the trend low of 0.7530 and the RBA’s line in the sand at 0.7500.
The topside will find sellers once more on an approach towards 0.7700 and then again as we head back to the session high at 0.7738. I don’t really see it up here and the indicators do suggest that being long US$ may be the plan for those who want a position heading into the NFP.
Economic data highlights will include:
Trade Balance.
Jim LanglandsFX Charts www.fxchartsdaily.com
