AUD/USD: 0.7725EUR/USD: 1.1340An upbeat outlook with regards to a Greek deal, which would allow Athens to access further funding from the EU and therefore avoid a default, has seen global equity markets rally today, with the Greek market up by 9%. The currencies are rather more sanguine, having had a generally, fairly steady session in waiting for a more definitive outcome from the negotiations over the next couple of days where further talks are now scheduled over the next few sessions. The waiting game will therefore continue, as will the never-ending, conflicting headlines. In the meantime, today’s economic focus will be on the global PMIs, starting with China, and then later in the day, on the US Durable Goods Orders.
The Aud has drifted lower through the session after making an early high at 0.7795, currently trading just above the lows of 0.7720 and will now wait on the local House Price data and then the HSBC China Flash Manufacturing PMI.
Should the China figures be soft, then it could be that we are in for a more sustained test of the recent 0.7700 pivot. A break of this, which the 1+4 hour charts are pointing to, would see a move back towards minor channel support at around 0.7665 and then to the 17 June session low at 0.7645, ahead of further support at 0.7630 and at 0.7600.
The topside will see sellers at the 200/100 HMAs at 0.7750/55, a break of which would then head back towards 0.7770 (100 DMA) and to 0.0.7795 (55 DMA). Above this looks unlikely today, but further strength would open up last Friday’s high at 0.7813a break of which would then head to last week’s 0.7848 high (50% pivot of 0.0.7532/0.8162). Further out the Aud could potentially head towards 0.7880 (50% of 0.8162/0.7602) and on to 0.7900 and to 0.7943 (61.8% of 0.8162/0.7602), although I don’t really see it unless we see a happy ending for Athens.
Economic data highlights will include:
House Price Index, CB Leading Indicator, HSBC China Flash Manufacturing PMI
Jim LanglandsFX Charts www.fxchartsdaily.com
