AUD/USD: 0.7800EUR/USD: 1.1370The dollar has come under heavy pressure as the market digests the Fed's outlook at the FOMC, although it has recovered some lost ground after Greek/EU negotiations again broke down. An emergency summit of Troika leaders (EU/IMF/ECB) has now been scheduled for Monday. Today, aside from the BOJ Meeting/Monetary Policy Statement, there is little data due (German PPI, EU C/A, UK PSNBR), so it will be an event driven session. In the absence of any headlines/progress from Greece, it could be a quiet end to the week, which given the recent volatility would be quite a relief!
Having reversed from the previous session low of 0.7645 following the FOMC, the Aud soared in early Europe, eventually reaching 0.7848 before easing back late in the day to finish at 0.7800.
With no local data due today, it will be international event risk that drives trade, and with the charts being rather mixed it looks like being a choppy but fairly steady end to the week.
The immediate resistance is at the 0.7848 high (50% pivot of 0.0.7532/0.8162), above which would then head to 0.7880 (50% of 0.8162/0.7602) and on to 0.7900 and to 0.7943 (61.8% of 0.8162/0.7602).
A turn to the downside will see bids at 0.7770 and again at 0.7750. Under here would take a look at the 100/200 HMA’s at 0.7740/30 and then at 0.7700, but which looks unlikely to be bothered today. If wrong, a break of 0.7700 could see a move back to 0.7670 and then at the previous session low at 0.7645 ahead of further support at 0.7630 and at 0.7600.
Jim LanglandsFX Charts www.fxchartsdaily.com
