AUD/USD: 0.7780EUR/USD: 1.1270The dollar had a mixed session, with the Euro being the big winner after some positive noise about a deal to avoid a Greek default, but at this stage nothing firm has been announced. As expected, the ECB left rates unchanged, but raised the 2015 inflation outlook from 0.0% to 0.3%, which gave the Euro a further boost, and technically it looks as though it could head higher. Elsewhere it was choppy, and mostly seems likely to remain that way until tomorrow’s important US Jobs/NFP data. Before then, Australia today gets the April Retail Sales/Trade Balance but there is nothing form Europe and just the Jobless Claims from the US. Otherwise, all eyes are on Greece.
After reaching 0.7818 following the stronger GDP in Asian trade yesterday, the Aud has since run out of some steam, with some choppy action in Europe & NY being the main theme, closing the session at around 0.7780 and with focus now turning to today’s Retail Sales (0.4%) and Trade Balance (exp -2.25 bio).
The charts are rather mixed and another choppy session would not really surprise, but if the data is strong then another squeeze to the topside will take the Aud back to 0.7800 and on to the 0.7818 high (0.7813 =38.2% of 0.8162/0.7598), beyond which would allow a move towards 0.7840 (minor) and 0.7880 (50%). Beyond 0.7900, the next target would be 0.7948 (61.8% of 0.8162/0.7598) but will take a while to get there.
If the data fails to impress, then look for a run back to the 0.7750 low, below which will allow a run to 0.7725 (200 HMA) and then to 0.7700 and to the 100 HMA (0.7688). Below this looks unlikely for a while, but minor bids would arrive at 0.7660 and then at the strong support just ahead of 0.7600.
Economic data highlights will include:
Retail Sales, Trade Balance
Jim LanglandsFX Charts www.fxchartsdaily.com
