AUD/USD: 0.8105EUR/USD: 1.1350Yet more underwhelming US data (Retail Sales) sent the US$ lower and commodities higher, with the commodity bloc currencies in particular being major beneficiaries. Any Fed rate hike is looking more distant than ever. Today may be a more rangebound session given the Ascension Day holiday, but the US will get the weekly Jobless Claims and the April PPI data. Tomorrow’s highlights will be the US Industrial Production, Capacity Utilisation and RM Consumer Sentiment Index, which look unlikely to beat expectations and which would keep the dollar on the back foot heading into the weekend.
The Aud did not hang around for the soft US data to head higher, making it up to 0.8040 in Europe on the back of the generally soft US dollar and firmer commodity prices. The soft US data propelled it further, beyond last week’s peak at 0.8074, to a session high of 0.8123 and looking as though it can now head on towards the weekly Kijun at 0.8160 and then to the next major resistance at 0.8218 (50% of 0.8910/0.7532). Beyond that, further targets would be at 0.8294 (15 Jan high) and the 100 DMA at 0.8325. In the short term, the Fibo resistance at 0.8112 (76.4% of 0.8294/0.7532) will act as resistance.
The downside will now see bids at 0.8100 and then at the previous highs at 0.8074 and at 0.8030. Below this looks unlikely for a while now and it looks as though we are going to need to get used to a 0.8000 handle for a while to come.
Jim LanglandsFX Charts www.fxchartsdaily.com
