AUD/USD: 0.7890EUR/USD: 1.1150The US$ made some mild gains against the Euro on Monday due to renewed worries over a Greek exit from the EU, ahead of today’s scheduled Eur 750 mio loan repayment to the IMF. Elsewhere, Cable had another good session after the BOE left rates on hold, while the Kiwi hit a seven-week low against the US$ on speculation that the RBNZ might cut interest rates. More waiting, on any news from Brussels re Greece, will be the order of the day so it could be a sideways session until then, beyond which the focus will turn to tomorrow’s US Retail Sales.
The Aud has had a choppy sideways session, pretty much ignoring the weekend Chinese data/rate cut, and torn between higher Iron Ore prices and a slightly firmer US$ against the other major currencies, particularly the Kiwi which is a lot lower. In the absence of any data today could be much the same as the Aud consolidates close to 0.7900.
The topside will see sellers at 0.0.7915 (200 HMA) and then at 0.7930 (100 HMA) ahead of Friday’s 0.7966 high, a break of which could then see another approach to 0.8000, although I don’t think we get there today. If wrong, back above 0.8000 would head back towards last week’s 0.8030 high and the previous week’s 0.8074 high, which will provide strong resistance.
Back below Monday’s 0.7875 low, the downside will see bids at last Friday’s low at 0.7862, which is backed up by the 100 DMA at 0.7850 and the 100 Month MA at 0.7810 (also the 50% pivot of 0.75320.8079). Below this would open up the chance for a return to last week’s 0.7785 spike low, seen following the RBA rate cut, and then to 0.7738 (61.8% of 0.7532/0.8079) but which seems unlikely for a while.
Overall a choppy, directionless session looks to be in store unless there are any major developments over Greece. The Budget is due later, but having been pretty much already leaked looks likely to have little impact.
Economic data highlights will include:
Home Loans, Federal Budget
Jim LanglandsFX Charts www.fxchartsdaily.com
