AUD steady near 0.8000 after FOMC

AUD/USD:  0.8000
EUR/USD:  1.1120

The dismal Q1 US GDP data was today’s culprit, sending the US$ sharply lower again after missing expectations badly. The FOMC result offered little new, although the Fed remained reasonably positive in noting that the economy’s Q1 slowdown is due to transitory factors such as the bad weather, and in effect, signalling that an increase in interest rates remains on the table. The timing of any hike remains uncertain but looks increasingly pushed out to September at the earliest. More volatile trade is likely, and today will look to the EU CPI and German Unemployment to provide the direction ahead of the US Personal Consumption/Expenditure and Jobless Claims. Asia has just seen the RBNZ leave rates on hold but again lamented the elevated level of the Kiwi, and later gets to see the BOJ interest rate decision. Australia gets the Private Sector Credit.

The Aud has finished another big session, back above 0.8000, after having soared to 0.8075 after the release of the US Q1 GDP missed expectations in a big way.
 
While the dailies remain positive, the short term indicators have become overbought and look to be turning lower, so it looks as though we are going to be in for a session of choppy consolidation, possibly not too far removed from 0.8000.
 
0.8000, nearby, will provide the initial support, below which would open the way for another run towards the session low at 0.7975. Below here would open the chance of a move back towards 0.7952 (23.6% of 0.7552/0.8075) below which there is not too much to hold it up ahead of 0.7900.
 
The topside will see sellers at 0.8050 and then again at 0.8075. Above here looks unlikely today, while the short term charts rebalance their overbought condition, but if wrong, we could be in for a move to 0.8100 and the 22 Jan high at 0.8135.
 
Given the overbought nature of the short term charts, the preference its to selling into rallies today, with a SL above the session high.
 
Economic data highlights will include:
 
Private Sector Credit.
 
 
Jim Langlands
FX Charts 
www.fxchartsdaily.com