AUD/USD: 0.7778EUR/USD: 1.0820 The US$ is generally under pressure again today on the back of more soft US data and some relatively upbeat news from Greece, where the prospect of a default and an exit from the EU seem to be waning (or more likely, postponed). Today sees the Eurogroup meeting, at which the situation in Greece will be the centre of attention and will largely drive the direction of the markets, although Greece will not present a list of economic reforms and the whole deal seems set to be kicked down the road, to the next meeting on May 11. The US Durable Goods Orders will also be released, where another soft reading would again delay the prospect for the need for a Fed rate hike and will keep the dollar under pressure.
The Aud remains within the 0.7700/0.7800 band, and with no data due today direction will be driven by offshore events.
Technically there is no change.
The downside will see bids at 0.7750 (100 HMA) and then at the 200 HMA at 0.7710 (200 HMA)
Further out, below 0.7700 would head to the week’s low at 0.7682, ahead of the minor Fibo supports at 0.7665 and 0.7620. If/when we ever head back below 0.7600, decent support would lie at 0.7575, 0.7550 and at the trend low of 0.7532 (2 April low). Below this, the RBA’s line in the sand at 0.7500 will provide stronger support but a break of which would open up the way to 0.7414 (Oct 2010 low).
On the topside, back above 0.7800 and Wednesday’s high at 0.7806 would allow a return to last Friday’s high of 0.7842, above which would suggest a run towards 0.7884 (26 March high), 0.7904 (25 March high) and to the trend high at 0.7937.
The charts are mixed, although a short term bullish flag appears to be forming which could see an advance on the 0.7840 area.
Jim Langlands
FX Charts
www.fxchartsdaily.com
