AUD/USD: 0.7635EUR/USD: 1.0815The dollar has now made up much of the lost ground seen after Friday's US jobs data and appears set to resume its uptrend against the Euro. In the short term it will be a day of waiting for the FOMC minutes of the March meeting, due late in the US session, although any hawkish bias from the Fed may be somewhat tempered by Friday's NFP outcome. In the meantime a day of consolidation appears to be in store. We do have the BOJ Meeting and a Kuroda press conference coming up in Asia, although no-one really thinks there will be any change in policy. That aside there is little else to trade on and it could be fairly quiet while we wait for the Fed minutes.
The economists got it right yesterday - and the market wrong - in predicting the RBA would stay on hold, causing an immediate spike higher from sub 0.7600 back up to 0.7710 after they decided to sit on their hands for another month, possible longer. That was as good as it got for the Aud though and it has since spent its time drifting steadily lower, under pressure from the resurgent US$.
Currently at 0.7630, the points to watch are fairly similar to the last few sessions. On the topside, the 200 HMA is at 0.7655, above which may see a return to 0.7700 and to the session high at 0.7710, where the daily Tenkan will again provide resistance, although this looks doubtful today unless we see a turnaround in the fortunes of the US$. Above there, the daily Kijun/weekly Tenkan both sit at 0.7633 and would provide a major hurdle ahead of any chance of a move back towards 0.7800.
The downside will again find support at 0.7600 and at the session low at 0.7575. In the absence of any major data, I doubt we are heading below here today, but further points to watch would be at 0.7559 (11 Mar low) and at 0.7532 (2 April low). Below here, the RBA’s line in the sand at 0.7500 will provide stronger support but a break of which would open up the way to 0.7414 (Oct 2010 low), beneath which there is a bit of a black hole until the very strong support at around 0.7200, where two important Fibo levels are lining up (0.7210: 61.8% of 0.4773//1.1082 and 0.7180: 76.4% of 0.6006/1.1082). I suspect that eventually 0.7000 will appear on the horizon (and even 0.6000!), but this is going to be some way off yet.
Jim LanglandsFX Charts www.fxchartsdaily.com
