AUD/USD: 0.7610EUR/USD: 1.0585The dollar is relatively steady today against most of the majors ahead of the FOMC meeting and it looks like being a fairly quiet session until the release of the Statement, with the main focus being on whether or not the Fed still sees the need to be "patient" before hiking rates later in the year. Until the FOMC it looks like being pretty quiet, although before then, Asia gets the Japanese Trade Balance and the BOJ Monthly report. From the UK, the BOE Minutes and Employment data will be released and there is some minor EU data but most traders will be sitting on their hands, waiting for the outcome of what Janet Yellen has to say.
The Aud is steady today after a range of 0.7605/65 but is finishing towards the lower end of the range and will now wait for the outcome of the Fed decision later in the coming session.
A break of 0.7600 would open up the chance of a move towards last week’s low at 0.7560, below which would then hint at a run towards the RBA’s stated target of 0.7500. I think we are eventually heading there, and lower, over time, and below 0.7500 there is not too much to hold the Aud ahead of 0.7414 (Oct 2010 low). Under here, there is very strong support at around 0.7200 where two important Fibo levels are lining up (0.7210: 61.8% of 0.4773/1.1082 and 0.7180:76.4% of 0.6006/1.1082). I suspect that eventually 0.7000 will appear on the horizon (and eventually 0.6000!), but this is going to be some way off yet.
On the topside, the session high at 0.7665 and the previous day’s high of 0.7678 will provide the immediate resistances, above which could see a run towards 0.7700. Beyond here we could see a return to last week’s high at 0.7730 and then at the pivotal 100 Month MA at 0.7760 but which currently looks a long way off.
Economic data highlights will include:
WBC Leading Indicator, China House Price Index.
Jim LanglandsFX Charts www.fxchartsdaily.com
