AUD/USD: 0.7590EUR/USD: 1.0540The dollar's uptrend is accelerating, and having today pushed the Euro and the Aud$ to multi year lows, it looks set to continue as we approach next week’s FOMC Meeting and a looming US rate hike . Today is going to be another busy one, starting with the Australian unemployment figures, and then later focusing on the inflation data from Germany, France & Spain and the US Retail Sales. The Kiwi has just rallied strongly after the RBNZ left rates unchanged as a very short market runs for cover.
The Aud remains under heavy pressure today, having so far seen a low of 0.7559 ahead of the unemployment data, which is expected to show a slight improvement (exp +15K, 6.3%) and may underpin it for a while.
Not for long though, if the US$ continues its strong run which will keep the downside pressure on the Aud which looks headed to the RBA’s stated target of 0.7500. I think we are heading there and lower over time, and suspect that eventually 0.7000 will appear on the horizon. In the meantime, below 0.7500, there is not too much to hold the Aud ahead of 0.7414 (Oct 2010 low).
A good jobs number would see a run to back above 0.7600 and on towards 0.7640. I don’t see t above here today unless the US$ does a major U-turn, which seems unlikely, but further rallies in the Aud would take it back towards 0.7685 and then to 0.7700.
Economic data highlights will include:
Consumer Inflation Expectation, Unemployment.
Jim LanglandsFX Charts www.fxchartsdaily.com
