AUD/USD: 0.7760EUR/USD: 1.1315The currency markets have remained choppy today, but without going anywhere too far in either direction as conflicting stories coming out of Greece continue to keep traders on their toes, and in the absence of any major data from either the EU or the US we can probably expect a similar sort of session today. The main interest was in the Yen, which weakened, as safe haven demand diminished on improved risk sentiment with regard to the story in Greece, although I suspect that this may turn out to be a rather short term relief! Australia gets the WBC Consumer Confidence and Home Loan data and there is also a Euro group meeting later today, so keep an eye out for any statements from that, but that is about it
The Aud ran out of steam once again on the upside, at 0.7841 and it has since headed lower to reach the support at 0.7750, which has again so far held, although the short term charts suggest that we could have a more sustained test later on, particularly if today’s WBC Consumer Confidence & Home Loan figures come in below expectations. More likely I suspect is that we chop around in rather directionless trade as we await tomorrow's domestic unemployment data.
Below 0.7750 would head towards further bids at 0.7720/30, below which would suggest a move back below 0.7700 and possibly towards the trend lows at around 0.7625, although I don’t think we see it down here today.
Further out, on an eventual break of the current trend lows, we are looking at the RBA’s stated target at 0.7500, beneath which there is little real support for the Aud until the next major Fibo supports to be seen on the monthly chart (below) at 0.7204 and then at 0.7183 (76.4% of 0.6006/1.1082 and 61.8% of 0.4773/1.1082). If/when seen, this area should be extremely strong support.
On the topside, the 200/100 HMA’s at 0.7785/95 will provide minor resistance, above which would possibly head back towards the session high at 0.7841, although this currently looks unlikely. If wrong, above 0.7850 would head towards Friday’s top at 0.7877. Above here, we could be in for a run towards 0.7895 (23.6% of 0.8794/0.7625) and then to the 50% pivot of 0.8230/0.7625 at 0.7925, above which could then see a run back towards the Fibo resistance at 0.7995 (61.8% of 0.8230/0.7625).
Use 0.7730/0.7810 as a rough guide.
Economic data highlights will include:
WBC Consumer Confidence, Home Loans, Investment Lending, China New Loans.
Jim LanglandsFX Charts www.fxchartsdaily.com
