Evercore ISI’s Julian Emanuel reaffirmed his firm’s S&P 500 target of 7750 by the end of 2026, citing his ‘wall of worry’ checklist. According to Emanuel, the signs typically associated with the end of bull markets are currently absent. This suggests continued growth in the index over the next few years.
However, Emanuel noted several factors that contribute to his ‘wall of worry.’ These include repricing the Federal Reserve’s rate trajectory, rising equity volatility, and potential tariffs from President Donald Trump. These elements introduce near-term volatility and risk, especially given the current record bullishness in the market. He suggests that less-than-perfect news could negatively impact stocks.
Despite these concerns, Emanuel highlighted positive drivers, such as upward capital expenditure revisions supporting AI-related companies. He noted that spending on artificial intelligence applications continues to fuel growth within index-heavy AI names. At the same time, Emanuel sees little evidence of excessive capital market speculation, even with increasing bullish sentiment.
Emanuel also pointed out the relative youth of the current bull market. At seven months and a 36% gain, it is still young compared to the average bull market duration of approximately four years and a 147% gain. This suggests further potential for growth, even amidst existing economic and market concerns.
