Global steel demand is projected to remain flat in 2025, according to the latest short-range outlook from worldsteel. The organisation, representing approximately 85 per cent of global steel production, forecasts demand will reach about 1750 million tonnes, mirroring 2024 levels. However, worldsteel anticipates a modest rebound of 1.3 per cent in 2026, potentially lifting global demand to 1772 million tonnes. Worldsteel is an industry association that provides data, analysis, and advocacy for the steel industry. It represents steel producers, national and regional steel industry associations, and steel research institutes.
Alfonso Hidalgo de Calcerrada, chief economist at the Spanish Steel Producers Association, noted that the “positive outlook is underpinned by the demonstrated resilience of the global economy”. Despite the positive sentiment, challenges persist. The global manufacturing sector is grappling with elevated production costs and sustained affordability pressures on consumers. Escalating trade tensions are also negatively impacting steel demand in economies heavily reliant on the export of steel-intensive goods, like machinery and automotive components.
China’s steel demand is expected to continue its decline in 2025, falling by approximately 2.0 per cent, according to worldsteel. This moderation of the downward trend observed since 2021 is primarily driven by the ongoing downturn in the housing market. Looking ahead to 2026, the decline is projected to further decelerate to 1.0 per cent as the housing market bottoms out.
Worldsteel believes that the risks to its current China steel demand outlook weigh on the downside. A tougher global trade environment poses a significant downside risk, potentially slowing steel demand from the manufacturing sector. Additionally, lingering financial pressures on local governments could constrain infrastructure investments, further dampening demand.
