Barrenjoey has upgraded its long-term uranium price forecast from $US80 to $US90 a pound, citing the potential for a supply shortfall and growing global acceptance of nuclear energy. In a note to clients, Barrenjoey’s head of metals and mining research, Glyn Lawcock, highlighted renewed momentum in the uranium market. This momentum is driven by increased demand signals and persistent supply-side constraints.
According to Lawcock, recent policy announcements across the US and Europe are positively impacting demand. Simultaneously, new uranium producers are struggling to increase production, and financial players are anticipated to re-engage in the spot market. Global support for nuclear power is growing, particularly in the United States, Europe, and China. Barrenjoey pointed to China’s approval of 10 new nuclear reactors and past executive orders in the US aimed at accelerating nuclear power development.
This increased demand coincides with production struggles at several new developments. Miners such as ASX-listed Peninsula Energy have indicated a likely downgrade to their 2025-2027 output, while Paladin Energy and Kazatomprom have also reported production guidance cuts over the past year. Consequently, Barrenjoey’s long-term forecast of $US90 a pound is now 22 per cent above the broader market’s estimate of $US74 a pound. Barrenjoey is an Australian-founded financial services firm. It provides investment banking, equities, and fixed income services.
Barrenjoey also revised up its price targets for uranium miners Boss Energy and Paladin Energy and initiated coverage on Deep Yellow. Investor enthusiasm appears to be following this trend, with shares in ASX-listed uranium developers Deep Yellow and Boss doubling since April lows, while Paladin is also sharply higher. However, UBS analysts recommend clients not hold Boss shares, citing risks to increased production at its Honeymoon operation in South Australia.
