Prices across US retail and manufacturing chains are rising as tariffs take effect and inventories contract. Nike has reported a US$1bn tariff-related impact and flagged further price increases, while ITS Logistics has begun re-ticketing millions of items, with price hikes ranging from 8% to 15%. A recent survey from the footwear industry suggests retail prices could rise 6–10% in 2025 due to ongoing trade costs.
Inventory levels are tightening across warehouses, as retailers reduce stock levels and SKU variety in response to trade uncertainty and economic pressure. Stock on hand has reportedly dropped from six months’ worth to closer to three. The Logistics Managers’ Index recorded a 6% month-on-month decline in warehouse inventories for June, with earlier signs of growth proving short-lived.
Shipping data also points to a subdued holiday season. Imports at the Port of Los Angeles are expected to fall below 2024 levels for July, and empty containers are accumulating—suggesting lower freight activity. Although the Port of New York and New Jersey continues to see strong volumes, shifts in sourcing away from China toward Southeast Asia and India remain limited in scale.
Spot ocean freight rates from Asia to the US West Coast have fallen sharply—down 39% since the beginning of June—highlighting a softening in demand. Analysts expect import volumes to continue declining throughout 2025, driven by high effective tariff rates and weakening consumer spending. Businesses are maintaining lean inventories amid the uncertain cost environment.
