The Dutch government has collapsed after far-right leader Geert Wilders abruptly pulled his Party for Freedom (PVV) from the ruling coalition, plunging the Netherlands into political uncertainty just weeks before it is set to host a major NATO summit.
Prime Minister Dick Schoof, a technocrat leading the government since July 2024, tendered his resignation to King Willem-Alexander on Tuesday, only 11 months after taking office. His announcement followed Wilders’ declaration that the PVV would quit the four-party coalition due to the other partners’ refusal to adopt his hardline 10-point plan on asylum and migration.
“I signed up for the toughest asylum policy, not the downfall of the Netherlands,” Wilders told reporters, insisting his exit was forced by broken promises.
“No signature under our asylum plans. The PVV leaves the coalition,” he posted on X.
The move ends the Netherlands’ most right-leaning coalition in history—comprising the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, agrarian BBB, and centrist NSC—and leaves Schoof leading a weakened caretaker government with just 51 of 150 parliamentary seats.
Clash over asylum policy—and defence spending
Wilders’ proposals included militarising the border, closing refugee centres, and deporting Syrians with temporary protection status—measures legal experts say would violate EU law and international conventions. The collapse mirrored the downfall of the previous government led by Mark Rutte, which also fractured over migration.
But many political analysts argue asylum was not the only fault line.
“I think Mr. Wilders wants everyone to believe it was over immigration,” said Jan Paternotte of the D66 party. “But what I think happened here is that Wilders found the kitchen too hot, because the Netherlands was now facing the prospect of massively ramping up defence spending.”
That pressure stems from a looming NATO summit in The Hague on 24–25 June, where allies are expected to commit to higher military spending. NATO’s new secretary-general—none other than Rutte himself—is pushing for member states to reach 3.5% of GDP in defence outlays, a goal the Netherlands estimates would cost an additional €16–19bn annually.
“That would require either raising taxes or cutting spending,” Paternotte noted. “It was pretty obvious Wilders wanted to do neither.”
Fallout and fury
Leaders of the remaining coalition parties reacted with open anger.
“This wasn’t about asylum at all,” said VVD leader Dilan Yesilgöz. “We had a right-wing majority. He lets it all go—for his ego. He’s running away at a time of unprecedented uncertainty.”
Schoof said he had warned party leaders repeatedly that bringing down the government was “unnecessary and irresponsible.” He and the remaining cabinet ministers will now govern in a limited caretaker capacity, restricted from launching new initiatives or passing major legislation.
What happens next?
New elections are expected to be scheduled for October or November. In the meantime, Dutch politics enters a holding pattern—just as key decisions on defence, energy policy, and EU regulations were approaching.
The collapse also jeopardises nearly €3bn in green hydrogen subsidies and the rollout of a national hydrogen infrastructure plan, part of broader EU climate and energy targets.
The Netherlands’ fragmented political landscape makes any swift resolution unlikely. No single party has held a parliamentary majority since 1848, and post-election coalition talks often stretch for months. After the 2023 election, it took six months to form the Schoof-led government.
Wilders’ gamble
Wilders’ PVV, which won 23% of the vote in 2023, has slipped in recent polls to about 20%—still narrowly ahead of the centre-left Labour–Green alliance led by Frans Timmermans, who has called for quick elections.
Political observers say Wilders may have engineered the collapse to reset the narrative.
“He knew support was waning,” said Chatham House analyst Armida van Rij. “And with the NATO summit approaching, he tried to use it as leverage to force concessions.”
“If it hadn’t happened today, it would have happened in a few weeks,” said D66 leader Rob Jetten, noting the coalition was riven by infighting and dysfunction. “The other parties were being held hostage by Wilders.”
But while Wilders has vowed to return stronger and try again for the premiership, his reputation as an unreliable partner may make future coalition-building even harder.
“This is suicidal politics,” said Dutch political scientist René Cuperus. “He shot himself in the foot.”
For now, the Netherlands faces a period of paralysis—governed by a weakened cabinet, heading into a NATO summit with major defence obligations unresolved, and drifting toward an uncertain election season.
