Voluntary production group to assess next steps over weekend amid summer demand surge
OPEC+ has left its formal output quotas unchanged following its latest ministerial meeting, reaffirming production targets set in December and maintaining a group-wide cut of 2 million barrels per day through to the end of 2026. Market attention now shifts to a subgroup of eight key producers who will decide over the weekend whether to proceed with a further production increase for July.
This eight-member group—comprising Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—has already begun gradually reversing earlier voluntary cuts totalling 2.2 million barrels per day. These nations are currently set to restore approximately 1 million barrels per day of supply between April and June.
Crude prices ticked higher following the announcement. Brent futures for July settlement rose 1.26% to close at US$64.90 a barrel, while WTI crude settled 1.56% higher at US$61.84. As of the latest trade, Brent was at US$64.60 and WTI at US$61.55.
The gains came as supply-side risks lingered. Chevron on Wednesday ended production and service contracts in Venezuela after a US order barring it from exporting Venezuelan crude, while wildfires in Canada added further uncertainty.
A key topic at the OPEC+ meeting was the establishment of new 2027 production baselines. Members tasked the OPEC Secretariat with assessing each country’s maximum sustainable production capacity to recalibrate quotas ahead of that date. The next full ministerial meeting is scheduled for 30 November.
UBS strategist Giovanni Staunovo noted earlier this week that the oil market remained “closely balanced” in Q1 and projected prices to move sideways between US$60 and US$70 in the coming months. Summer typically brings a surge in demand due to increased travel and electricity usage in the Middle East, further tightening the near-term outlook.
UAE Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei warned, “Demand is picking up. And demand is going to surprise us, if we’re not investing enough.”
