Brussels to unveil countermeasures targeting $100bn in US goods if talks fail; aerospace braces for renewed tariff war
The European Union will unveil retaliatory trade measures on Thursday targeting nearly €100 billion (US$113 billion) worth of US goods—including Boeing aircraft and American-made cars—should ongoing negotiations with Washington collapse, Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefcovic confirmed on Wednesday.
Speaking in Singapore, Šefcovic said the bloc remained “laser-focused” on a negotiated outcome but is ready for “any scenario,” warning that “negotiations clearly come first, but not at any cost.”
The measures—to be outlined in a forthcoming European Commission paper—would revive and expand the EU’s previously suspended rebalancing tariffs. That list had initially covered €21 billion in US exports, with 25% duties aimed at products such as steel, aluminium, and motorcycles. The new list is expected to go much further, reflecting Trump’s latest trade salvoes and the growing scope of US tariffs.
Trump’s tariffs raise stakes
President Donald Trump has imposed a 25% tariff on European cars and metals, alongside a “reciprocal” 10% duty on almost all EU goods—a figure that could double to 20% if no deal is reached by the July 8 expiry of a 90-day tariff pause.
The proposed EU response would strike at politically and economically sensitive sectors, with Boeing aircraft reportedly among the top targets. Aerospace products represent a major component of US exports to the EU, and Boeing is already under pressure from concurrent tensions with China. The US exported over US$35 billion in aerospace goods to Europe last year.
Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary last week warned that the Irish airline could cancel a $33 billion Boeing order if tariffs materially raise prices. Airbus, meanwhile, has urged Brussels to impose reciprocal tariffs if talks fail, echoing calls from US and EU industry leaders to restore duty-free status under a 1979 WTO agreement.
Šefcovic also said Brussels may pursue legal remedies through the World Trade Organization, labelling the US tariffs “simply unjust, unfair, and in total breach of international commercial law.”
Europe’s evolving trade posture
The EU’s latest posture reflects a broader strategic recalibration. Facing a fraying transatlantic alliance, Europe has sought to diversify trade ties—advancing deals with Mercosur, the UAE, and Canada, and exploring a strategic partnership with the CPTPP trade bloc.
At the same time, Europe is boosting defence autonomy. Twelve member states have triggered a “national escape clause” allowing them to exceed budget caps to fund military expansion, and the EU has proposed €800 billion in defence investment over the next four years.
The EU has also rapidly pivoted away from Russian energy and is aiming to end all gas imports from Russia by 2027.
A new global order
Trump’s return to the White House has reshaped global trade dynamics. His “America First” doctrine—amplified by Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio—has diminished US support for the liberal international order. Europe now finds itself navigating a fragmented landscape, seeking to preserve global trade norms while preparing for a more transactional world.
Despite the EU’s hope for resolution, few in Brussels are optimistic. Trade officials say progress has been slow and industry insiders expect the talks to drag on for months.
As Šefcovic put it to the European Parliament earlier this week: “We do not feel weak. We do not feel under undue pressure to accept a deal which would not be fair for us.”
