Tesla shares experienced their largest single-day drop since 2020, plummeting over 15% amid growing anxieties among Wall Street analysts regarding the electric vehicle manufacturer’s delivery projections. The downturn was spurred by UBS Group’s Joseph Spak, who significantly reduced delivery estimates for both the first quarter and the full year. Spak now forecasts Tesla to deliver only 367,000 vehicles this quarter, a 16% decrease from his previous estimate, and projects a 5% annual sales decline in 2025, contradicting Tesla’s own growth expectations. Robert W. Baird & Co analyst Ben Kallo had also lowered his estimates on March 6.
The stock price reflected these revised expectations, falling to $224.57, with an intraday low of $220.66. While the average analyst surveyed by Bloomberg anticipates a 10% increase in deliveries for the year, Spak’s analysis suggests otherwise. He points to extended delivery times in China as a factor contributing to the revised outlook.
Spak highlighted that despite the anticipated boost from the Model Y refresh, order volumes appear subdued. He noted delivery wait times of only two to four weeks for the new SUV on Tesla’s Chinese website. This observation signals potential demand challenges for Tesla in a crucial market, further fueling concerns about the company’s short-term growth trajectory and contributing to the negative investor sentiment.
