OPEC+, comprising OPEC members and allies including Russia, has confirmed it will proceed with a planned oil output increase in April 2025. Since 2022, the group has implemented production cuts totaling 5.85 million barrels per day (bpd), approximately 5.7% of global supply, to bolster market prices. In December, these cuts were extended through the first quarter of 2025, postponing the initially planned output increase until April. ?
The gradual unwinding of the most recent 2.2 million bpd cut is set to commence in April, with OPEC+ maintaining flexibility to pause or reverse the increase based on prevailing market conditions. This decision comes as Brent crude prices have fluctuated between $70 and $82 per barrel, influenced by anticipated changes in U.S. sanctions on major oil producers and tariffs on China. The market’s response to the increased output will likely influence OPEC+’s subsequent decisions regarding further adjustments to production levels. The group’s strategy remains adaptable, contingent on monitoring market dynamics to maintain stability.?
Additionally, non-OPEC+ countries are expected to drive petroleum liquids supply growth in 2025 and 2026, with significant contributions from the United States, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana. This anticipated increase in global supply may impact OPEC+’s future production strategies as they seek to balance market stability with member countries’ economic interests.?
Overall, OPEC+ continues to navigate a complex landscape of fluctuating demand, geopolitical pressures, and evolving market dynamics, striving to maintain equilibrium in the global oil market.
