Growth outlook faces headwinds
While the global economy grew at the reasonable pace of 3.8% in 2018, there is considerable uncertainty about whether that growth can be maintained - centred around the effect of interest rate rises on the US economy, the impact of the trade war on the Chinese economy and a slowing in Europe complicated by Brexit. While noting the risks, our assumption is for orderly moderation of growth in the US and China as the Federal Reserve reviews the pace of monetary tightening and progress is made on trade talks.
Recent data releases point to a moderating growth story for the Australian economy.
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