I have been negative on NCM since September last year when gold dropped over $100 in one day, and the stock has progressively fallen away since, due in part to a correcting gold price, and cost issues in Lihir. Towards the end of 2011, we can see that the stock broke out of a consolidation zone, came up to retest the apex, and then fell away again. As we can see on the chart above, the same thing has happened again, albeit on a smaller scale. At this rate, NCM is on track to retest the 2008 lows under $17. Traders can therefore short NCM but place a stock just above last week's high.