NCM - defensive share options strategy profitable

by Raymond Chan

Those who implemented either of strategies below on19 May 2011, are able to take profit.

1. Jun $37.50 put was sold was $1.00 per contract can be bought back for 20c, locking in 80c profit.

2. Jun $37.50 put sold with the buying of $37 put for about 20c credit per contract - can be bought back for a combined 7c per contract, locking in profit of 13c per contract.

Where to from here, let's have a look at NCM options actions.

i Volume 
Volume in NCM options increased last week, in fact doubled that of the week before though the stock rose 2% in each of those two weeks.

ii Weekly put/call ratio
In the two weeks (week 3 and 4 in May 2011) where NCM recovered 2% a week , it has stayed the same at 1.6 times. No improvement.

iii Open interests (OI)
Near term, June expiry largest OI are positioned at $38 for puts and $41 for calls

iv Implied volatility
In the first week of May where NCM plunged 4% followed by another 2% plunge in the 2nd week on May before the 2% rise in week 3 and week 4, there had been no increase in implied volatility compared to its historicals. This implies traders' view of the stock not being too volatile. 
iv Popular combination trades
On observing some the combination trades there were some bear put spreads with the buying of put at $39 for protection and then there were bull put spreads with the selling of the $39 put as long exposure. There were other various combinations of bull and bear spreads around the $39 to $41 strikes.
What do all these mean?
I suspect,  NCM is likely to trade in a range in the short term with what the open interests in puts and calls for June expiries are indicating, between the $38 and $41price range.


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