Commentary
 
A glass half full

3 June 2010


With May being one of the worst months for markets in years, it's worth considering how much things have improved. Despite Greek debt woes and the threat of European contagion economic growth across the OECD is picking up. Speaking about the latest OECD Economic Outlook, OECD Director General Angel Gurria said that investors are over-reacting to the perceived problems in Europe. He even went so far as to say that if traders continue to panic, they could be responsible for causing the very contagion they so fear. Australia was the standout with some of the best economic growth and employment prospects in the OECD.


According to Gurria, we’re facing good economic growth on the back of a booming Chinese economy, which he doesn't see contracting any time soon. The OECD is projecting growth of 3.2% in Australia this year and 3.6% in 2011. The group predicts unemployment will fall to 4.8% by the end of next year. Gurria has also given the thumbs up to the Resource Super Profits Tax (RSPT), declaring it a legitimate way to raise revenue.  As for the declines in global markets over the past month, Gurria suggests investors look at each individual country instead of putting them all in the same basket. 

He believes the markets have adopted a herd mentality in response to Greece’s debt woes, allowing fear to dominate the system. “The markets can do an enormous disservice to themselves, because they can suffer losses that are self-inflicted …by following the very procyclical signals of rating agencies …instead of …looking seriously and objectively at each of the countries”. 

Take the currency markets for example. Known for overshooting, the Aussie dollar appears to have been lumped in with Europe’s debt woes and fallen victim. Looks like the old adage, “up by the stairs, down by the escalator”, still applies with respect to the Aussie. If Australia’s economy wasn’t so strong, we would have reason to worry. But being in the fortunate postion of having commodities in great demand, our currency should be the envy of the world.

Elizabeth Tilley - Finance News Network


 

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