EUR/USD
The Euro was looking soft in early Europe until the Chinese PM Wen, who is hosting
Angela Merkel gave reassurances of Chinese support to help stabilize the Euro and
to consider greater involvement in the EFSF and ESM funds. The Euro spiked from
1.3120 to 1.3190 in double quick time before retreating back into the middle of its
days range as he went on to suggest that the European issues needs to be resolved
by Europe itself. That was as good as it got throughout the session and EU’s Juncker
took the steam out of any further strength by suggesting that the measures taken at
the EU summit to solve the crisis have been generally insufficient. Elsewhere the
Greek debt deal seems to have a never ending deadline and now we await the Non
Farm Payroll numbers, due in the US session.
Bernanke has been speaking, expressing the usual concerns on Inflation,
Unemployment, Europe etc, but nothing that has had too much directional effect
on the dollar, and after an initial 50pip slide it has regained half of that ground. US
stocks have been unaffected and getting near the close are 0.1% higher (S+P),
following a session where the DAX closed up 0.6 % and the CAC +0.28%.
All in all, do not expect too much action through Asia. Europe too is likely to be
relatively quiet, although EU Services PMI and Retail Sales numbers may liven the
session up a little.
Technically, the Euro looks happy consolidating between the Fibo levels of
1.3005/1.3240 and in Asia it is likely that 1.3090/1.3190 will cover it. Outside this
nothing has changed. Above 1.3240, 1.3335 and then 1.3435 would attract, while a
downside break of 1.3005 would see an attempt on 1.2925. The hourly and 4 hourly
charts are now more or less flat and the dailies are suggesting mildly higher levels
to come. The choppy conditions look likely to continue, so remain flexible.
Expectations are for the NFP to be +150k and the unemployment rate is expected to
remain unchanged at 8.5%.
AUD/USD
Having tested the 1.0750 level, with a high at 1.0756 that failed pretty quickly,
the Aud has continued within the top end of its recent range and is respecting
channel that we have spoken about previously. The parameters here are now
1.0490/1.0785. Continue to respect these. I suspect the topside is going to have
increasing difficulty in making any decent headway as the daily indicators are
becoming increasingly overbought and the chances of a pullback are mounting.
That said the dips have been shallow with good support continually seen from
offshore investors.
Today should remain quiet until the NFP and much as yesterday I would expect
1.0680/1.0750 to pretty much cover it until the US session.
The 4 hour charts are showing some mild divergence, which may be trying to
give us an early warning of a correction, so should we make a dash for the
downside, expect support at 1.0610, 1.0570 and then at 1.0490, which is strong.
