EUR/USD
The Euro has had another day of choppy trade either side of 1.3400 as we head
towards the EU rate decision today (exp -0.25%) and then the EU Summit
tomorrow. The session has seen the usual mix of comments from the various
interested parties. German official’s comments have been seemingly intent on
lowering expectations of the outcome of tomorrow’s summit, which saw a
move to the day’s lows of 1.3350 before a rebound to current levels on reports
that the ECB may announce a series of measures at the summit to stimulate
bank lending.
All in all there has been little change and technically we remain where we have
been since the beginning of the week.
Reflecting the lack of movement in the Euro, European stocks finished pretty
flat (CAC -0.1%, DAX -0.6%) and this is being backed up in the US, where the
S+P is currently +0.4% as we go into the last 30 minutes of trade.
Resistance at 1.3550 remains intact & above here 1.3610 (38.2) and 1.3730
(50%) act as Fibo resistance of the move down from 1.4247/1.3210. Downside
support is at 1.3325 and then at 1.3260 and 1.3210. The charts continue to be
too mixed to have a firm view, and although the 4 hour charts are still fairly
neutral, the daily indicators do point towards the possibility of further strength.
This though, could change very quickly so play it safe and leave tight SL.
AUD/USD
The AUD moved to the top end of the range after the strong GDP number,
Wednesday, and has pretty much stayed there ever since. Today we have the
unemployment numbers to contend with, with the general expectation of the
figure being unchanged at 5.2% and +10.6K.
There is not a lot to add really.1.0300/30 remains a hurdle and beyond here,
1.0400 is a target, but 1.03/1.04 should be difficult to overcome given the
looming presence of the 100 DMA (1.0295) and the 200DMA (1.0410).
The downside, for now, looks to be well protected at 1.0150 following the test
and rebound from this level, Tuesday, and below here, 1.0075 (Fibo).
Choppy conditions look likely to continue, and the early Asian session appears
to be confined again in the 1.02/1.03 range, at least until the unemployment
data.
While the 4 hourly charts continue to unwind their overbought conditions the
dailies are still hinting of further tests to the upside. I am pretty uncommitted
either way right now and it appears we will see little of directional importance
until we know more about the EU outcome on Friday.
