AUD/USD
A relatively quiet session, largely within the 1.0150/1.02 range and currently
sitting just at the top end of this, but the Aud is yet to break the important
1.0230 resistance.
Technically, immediate support remains at 1.0150 and below here the first Fib
level is at 1.0070 and then 1.0015.This is unlikely to be seen today.
The 61.8% Fibo resistance of 1.0765/0.9385 comes in at 1.0230, as does 50% of
1.1080/0.9385 so will be a tough nut to crack. Should we do so, 1.0310 and
1.0390 come into play.
Today’s Chinese numbers might provide some direction and volatility.
Otherwise I suspect a quiet session lies ahead. Look for 1.0150/1.0230 to cover
it.
Equities have closed mildly lower today which should limit the excitement on
the upside for the AUD today.
EUR/USD
By the time Slovakia passed the EFSF vote, the market seems largely to have
lost interest and a relatively quiet days trading has resulted in the Euro sitting at
roughly the same levels seen this time yesterday.
Almost every official in Europe has been voicing their opinion today on the
subject of EU banks recapitalisation and the debt crisis, with concern that
Private Sector involvement in the Greek debt fiasco will have ongoing, greater
consequences for the banking sector. Elsewhere, amongst other EU soundbites,
has been Mario Draghi, Trichet’s successor at the ECB, warning Italy to get its
act together as it faces an uncontrollable debt spiral. Berlosconi, the Italian PM,
who has other things on his mind, aside from the fact that his country is going
bust, faces yet another vote of confidence in his leadership later today. Losing it
would probably be good for everyone. At least Italy might get a PM who is
actually interested in doing the job.
Technically we appear to be settled within the Fibo levels of 1.3680/1.3840, at
least for the coming session. Short term pressure looks as though we may see
an attempt to the upside but the 4 hourly charts are overbought and
momentum will be difficult to maintain.
Further out the dailies are trying to point higher and if we can breach 1.3840,
the next point of interest would be 1.3940, the 15 Sept high. Beyond here the
next Fibo resistance is at 1.4010.
We get China CPI, PPI today, and later on, EU CPI figures. Finally, US Retail Sales
and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will provide some direction.
Nothing very inspiring today so it looks to be an early mark and a good day to
arrange a lunch and to organise where to watch the rugby!
Have a great weekend.
