The Chinese effect on Aussie miners...SMSFs, pay attention

by Raymond Chan

Markets across the world sighed with relief after China released its inflation, though the highest in 34 months (at 5.5%), but markets were more hooked to its industrial production, which rose 13% - a show of structural strenght in the Chinese economy.

The take from it: the key numbers will be 7 and 6 for the Chinese authorities. The delicate balance of greater than 7% growth and less than 6% CPI.

Implications for Aussie miners: RIO and BHP will continue to benefit from the 7 and 6 percentages balance from China.

What are going for RIO and BHP apart from China?
1) Cash rich - both are expected to move to net cash postivie over the next 6 months
2) capacity for more capital management - US$3.3b from RIO and US$1b for BHP
3) Near term catalsyt - August results
4) At $80 and $43 respectively for RIO and BHP, they are low from valuation perspective in the medium term (with at least $100 and $50 being tauted for both stocks) 

OPTIONS STRATEGY

Options do not need to be taken advantage of by just traders or those who gear, but SMSFs and portfolio investors can benefit too. Strategy below can be used for SMSFs and portfolio investors if risk management procedure below is followed.

To buy shares:
Sell Rio Jul11 7801 put for $1.24 each contract

If assigned on 28 Jul expiry, purchase price of RIO is $78.01-$1.24 = $76.77
Be entitled to dividend of around 49c expected to go ex in mid Aug.

If not assigned, earned income of $124 for every 1 contract written or sold.

Risk: No downside protection.

Risk Management for SMSFs and non-gearing portfolio investors: Reserve $78,001 for 43 days for every 10 contracts sold/written. If not assigned, cash can be freed for other investments after 28 July.

Disclaimer

Information/strategies/trading ideas in this blog is provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as an offer to enter into any transaction. Information contained in this blog is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Information/strategies/trading ideas here have been prepared without consideration of the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any individual investor. Before a client/investor/reader makes an investment decision, a client/investor/reader should, with or without RBS Morgans' or the author’s assistance, consider whether any advice contained in this blog is appropriate in light of their particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances. It is unreasonable to rely on any recommendation without first having spoken to your adviser for a personal recommendation. The use of options may not be suitable for all investors. Potential investors are recommended to seek professional advice before embarking on any strategies mentioned in this blog. The information/strategies/trading ideas contained in this blog have been taken from sources believed to be reliable. Neither the author nor RBS Morgans Limited represent that the information is accurate or complete nor should it be relied upon as such. Any opinions expressed reflect the author’s judgment at this date and are subject to change and is not necessarily that of RBS Morgans'. RBS Morgans and/or its affiliated companies may make markets in the securities discussed. Further, RBS Morgans and/or its affiliated companies and/or their employees from time to time may hold shares, options, rights and/or warrants on any issue included in this blog and may, as principal or agent, sell such securities. The Directors of RBS Morgans Limited and Grosvenor Sydney office advise that they and persons associated with them may have an interest in the above securities and that they may earn brokerage, commissions, fees and other benefits and advantages, whether pecuniary or not and whether direct or indirect, in connection with the making of a recommendation or a dealing by a client/investor/reader in these securities, and which may reasonably be expected to be capable of having an influence in the making of any recommendation, and that some or all of our representatives may be remunerated wholly or partly by way of commission. Information in this blog is proprietary to its author and may not be copied as your own or used for any other purpose without the prior written consent of the author. RBS Morgans Limited (ABN 49 010 669 726 AFSL 235410) A Participant of ASX Group Principal Office: Level 29, Riverside Centre, 123 Eagle Street, Brisbane QLD 4000
 

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