Daily Murmur 15/03/11

by Gary Glover

XJO Where is it going?
We put out our recent 2011 forecast on the 7/2/11 (chart 1) and due to the 60 and 10 year being in tandem, this gave March as the most likely month for a high.  (This is for both equities and commodities) 
The current slide after breaking the rising wedge on the daily chart has been dramatic but this should be just the start of a larger topping process.  Longer term we expect to see a retest of the May 2010 low but the norm is to see more of a topping pattern, which means we should see some wild swings up and down.  September might be a bit too long an outlook as the move down has been impulsive but I do expect to see a few lower highs set up first so we should see a few sharp rallies on the way down.

The second chart is our most recent Elliott wave forecast and Wave 3 is 1.5 x wave 1 and wave 5 is .618 x wave 1.  The A wave took the market down to .38% retracement and the C wave should eventually take the market towards the 50% region which is around the 4080-4100 zone. The recent bearish break is very decisive so lower levels will be reached over time but again expect a few sharp bounces along the way.





Disclaimer

Gary Glover is an Authorised Representative (Rep No. 259215) of Novus Capital Limited ("Novus"). Novus is a holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No 238 168. Novus, its directors, officers, associates and employees each declare that they, from time to time, may hold interests in financial products and/or earn brokerage, commission, fees or other benefits from financial products mentioned in this e-mail or attached documents. Unless specifically stated within this page or an attached document, any information communicated by this e-mail constitutes unsolicited general financial product advice which has been compiled without regard to any investor's individual objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not specific advice for any particular investor. Before making any decision about the information provided, you need to consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to your individual objectives, financial situation and needs and consult your adviser. Any indicative information and assumptions used here are summarised and also may change without notice to you, particularly if based on past performance or relate to a future matter.